Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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The Congressional session will resume this month pretty much where it ended before the holiday recess, with lawmakers trying to decide how to reshape the financial regulatory structure. 

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The Treasury Department has received its first report card – actually two report cards -- on the management of the financial industry bail-out program (TARP). And the grades on both were poor. Both the Government Accountability Office and the Congressional panel overseeing the program found much to criticize in Treasury’s design, administration, implementation and evaluation of the $700 billion program.

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Turning a largely but not entirely deaf ear to warnings about over-regulating the financial industry, the House of Representatives has approved sweeping changes in the oversight of financial institutions.

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If you’re looking for one word to describe the economic climate, try “confusing.” Every day seems to bring a different statistical report accompanied by conflicting interpretations of what it means. One recent headline neatly conveyed this statistical schizophrenia: “Indicators Point to Firmer Economy – More Layoffs Ahead.” Translation: The economy, measured by rising GDP, declining factory inventories and resurgent manufacturing activity —is emerging from the recession, but it is leaving unemployed workers behind.