Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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Anyone looking for clarity or consistency in the March economic data will have to look hard and will likely be disappointed. If there is a pattern, it is disjointed – a tug-of-war between competing narratives, one suggesting a confident upward trajectory and the other cause to question it.

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A robust January employment report confirmed the economy’s strength, while triggering a bond sell-off that sent mortgage rates higher in early February. 

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The big economic news for this month is the much stronger than expected employment report; the big question is, why in the face of strong labor market, consumer spending (reflected in retail sales) has been trending steadily downward.

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Although Fed Chair Janet Yellen admits that policy makers are baffled by persistently low inflation, they are undeterred by the failure to meet the 2 percent target they have set as the indicator that higher interest rates are in order, and still on track to boost interest rates once more this year.