Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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Imagine a high-wire act performed without a net.  That describes the Federal Reserve’s effort to curb inflation without crashing the economy.  Success will bring applause and relief; failure, a brief downturn, at best, with a prolonged recession the worst case outcome. 

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unleashed an immigration tsunami, as millions of Ukrainian refugees have sought safety in Poland and other neighboring countries. 

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In a move telegraphed clearly and undeterred by the Crimea turmoil, the Federal Reserve increased  interest rates for the first time in four years, raising its benchmark rate by one-quarter- of percentage  point, from zero to a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, and indicating that additional rate hikes are coming. 

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Critics have sometimes complained that the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement are difficult to fathom. But there was nothing opaque about  the message Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered following the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: The Fed is going to begin raising interest rates in multiple steps beginning in mid-March.