Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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Two major issues dominated the news in late July:  Inflation – whether it is,  is not a problem or is likely to be one; and the prospect that millions of renters would be evicted from their homes as a federal moratorium barring evictions for nonpayment of rent expired.

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Is the housing boom creating a dangerous bubble?  In every boom-and-bust real estate cycle – and there have been a lot of them – experts have suggested and consumers have believed that the boom they were seeing, unlike all the others, would not be followed by a decline.  And every boom-bust cycle in the past has proven them wrong. 

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Judging by news reports and opinion pieces in trade publications and mainstream media, the risk of a housing bubble probably ranks as the top  concern of many economists and real estate industry executives today. But fear of resurgent inflation is a close second.  Home prices and a housing shortage are feeding the bubble fears, as we’ve discussed before; consumer prices and an increasingly rocky labor market recovery are creating the inflation jitters.

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The housing market is crazy!  More than one industry professional has reached that conclusion, watching trends that seem inconsistent, if not contradictory.