Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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The big news on the housing front last month was not the unexpected declines in existing home sales and new home construction activity; it was former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s revelation that he has been unable to refinance his existing mortgage.

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The employment picture brightened again in July as employers added more than 200,000 workers to their payrolls for the sixth consecutive month and June’s strong figure was revised upward to just under 300,000.  The improved jobs outlook drew more sidelined workers into the market, pushing the unemployment rate up slightly, from 6.1 percent to 6.2 percent.

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After surprising hugely on the upside in June, the employment report surprised in the opposite direction in July.  

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The job market surged in June. Can much stronger economic growth and the long awaited “flex point” in the housing market be far behind?