Inflation Pressures Are Easing but Rate Cut Forecast Remains Uncertain

The New Year is beginning where the old one ended -- with uncertainty about when – or whether – the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.

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“Tomorrow, tomorrow…” Annie’s refrain from the iconic 1970’s musical bearing her name summarizes an increasing number of housing forecasts. As the widely anticipated spring home buying surge has failed to materialize, many analysts have begun scaling back their previously upbeat forecasts, still insisting that much better times are coming – but not today.

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The employment figures came in higher in March than they had been trending so far this year ― not quite as high as analysts’ hopes for them, but high enough to ease concerns that the flat to negative growth patterns reflected in several key economic sectors this year might be attributable to something other than the miserable winter weather.

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One month, we are going to imagine economists humming the lyric from a ‘60s tune, “I can see clearly now,” as we read their reports. But not this month.

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Employers added 175,000 workers to their payrolls in February, surprising analysts, braced for a much weaker report, mirroring the weakness reflected in several key sectors, including retail sales, consumer spending and housing. Revisions in the Department of Labor data also increased the December and January employment totals by about 25,000.